Themis, a pioneer in the use of AI in the fight against financial crime and a certified B-Corp, has released a new intelligence briefing warning that the evolving conflict in the Middle East is rapidly increasing fraud risks for businesses, financial institutions and individuals across the Gulf.
As geopolitical tension, market volatility and disruption to trade and infrastructure continue to reshape the regional risk environment, Themis says fraud is emerging as one of the most immediate and scalable threats. Criminals are exploiting fear, urgency and confusion to launch increasingly convincing scams, often linked directly to real-time developments.
The briefing, Conflict-Driven Fraud: Emerging Risks from the Middle East Conflict, outlines how bad actors are taking advantage of three converging factors: a polluted information environment filled with AI-generated misinformation and fake content; heightened economic and operational pressure on businesses; and the increased vulnerability of individuals under stress.
Themis has identified a broad range of fraud typologies already surfacing, including government impersonation scams, fake charity appeals, bogus investment opportunities, business email compromise, supply chain and logistics fraud, and deepfake-enabled deception. In several cases, criminals have used polished websites, trusted brand cues and conflict-related narratives to pressure victims into fast decisions before checks can be carried out.
Recent intelligence cited in the briefing points to coordinated campaigns targeting the UAE, including fake “Emirates”-branded financial platforms and “Dubai”-linked crypto and investment scams designed to appear credible while exploiting economic anxiety. Themis also highlights a rise in cyber-enabled corporate fraud, phishing and payment diversion risks as businesses deal with rerouting, emergency procurement and disrupted supply chains.
The report further warns that the conflict has created conditions for insider trading and market abuse, with concerning examples emerging across both prediction markets and traditional financial markets in recent weeks.
"The message for organisations is clear: traditional controls alone are no longer enough. Firms should treat conflict-linked communications as high risk by default, tighten third-party due diligence, and improve staff awareness of impersonation, phishing and social engineering threats.”
- says Dickon Johnstone, Group CEO & Founder
“The scale of fraud emerging from this conflict is stark - not just in volume, but in its reach. We're tracking schemes that span advance-fee fraud, fake charity appeals, deepfake-driven disinformation, corporate phishing by state-aligned actors, and investment scams anchored in real market volatility. This should serve as a wake-up call for any organisation with exposure to the Gulf - the threat is fast-evolving, it is multi-faceted, and it demands an immediate and proactive response."
- says Nadia O’Shaughnessy, Themis’ Head of Insight
Through a combination of AI-enabled financial crime intelligence, fraud monitoring technology and targeted training, Themis supports organisations in detecting suspicious behaviour, identifying hidden risks and responding with greater confidence in fast-moving, high-pressure environments.
For organisations operating out of the Gulf, the threat is no longer theoretical. Conflict-driven fraud is already here, and it is evolving fast.
Themis is a pioneer in the use of AI in the fight against Financial Crimes. A certified B-Corp dedicated to stopping the deliberate exploitation of people, businesses and the natural world. With offices in Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Dubai, London and Riyadh, Themis works with clients globally across regulated and unregulated sectors. Its flagship platform, Themis Search, combines advanced AI with investigative intelligence to make financial crime detection more effective, accessible and impactful.
Themis is on the ground and monitoring the situation in the Middle East and emerging financial crime risks related to the conflict: A library of recent conflict related intelligence briefings can be found here.
